We tend to think in Montgomeryshire that elections elsewhere have no implications here. 

It may often be true, but perhaps it changes with our MP Craig Williams now being closely involved with the future of Rishi Sunak, as his Parliamentary Private Secretary.

It’s an unpaid job but the first step on the career ladder. 

It seems most Conservative MPs expect to be out of a job some time next year and are exploring alternatives. 

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So what is Rishi Sunak up to? The major issue amongst Conservative MPs at present seems to be “Who will the next Leader be after we’re defeated at the election” and this seems to be driving current policy. Rishi Sunak has recently been “flying a kite” on reducing taxation on higher earnings. 

This seems likely to lose more votes than it gains, so why? Well, it will be popular amongst many Conservative party members, the people who actually vote for the Leader. 

It may have some risks for Craig Williams to hitch his star so closely to Rishi Sunak. According to opinion polls Sunak was initially more popular than his predecessors as PM, but this is now well into a negative view.

Another message from the by-elections, is the effect of tactical voting by those who don’t want a conservative MP. 

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In one case the Lib-Dem collapsed completely as voters switched from them to Labour as more likely to win. So in this constituency, now Montgomery-Glyndwr, the outcome may depend on who anti-Tory voters think can win. 

Past history seems to indicate little chance for Labour, even with the additional bits, so it may depend on voters deciding which of Lib-Dems or Plaid Cymru are likely to be stronger. 

The by-elections also showed how important campaigning can be. It seems many Conservative Party members didn’t turn out to campaign, whereas Labour threw everything in.

So let’s hope candidates will make themselves known and provide opportunities to be questioned by voters.
Bernard Gillespie
Trefaldwyn