The Powys professor whose modelling led the UK Government to impose the coronavirus lockdown has said he is "encouraged" by the response to the recent rise in Covid cases.

But Professor Neil Ferguson, who was brought up in Trefeglwys and attended Llanidloes High School, also warned that further measures may be needed if the country is to avoid a second spike in cases.

The Imperial College epidemiologist told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "One of the mistakes made early on in this crisis was being cautious in responding to the epidemic and that led to the UK being later than we would have liked in locking down, and therefore we saw the death toll this country did see.

"And I am encouraged that now we are responding in a more timely manner – we have a lot more data available to track the epidemic."

He said "all the analysis" suggested there would be an "uptick in deaths in the coming weeks, so now is the time to respond".

But Prof Ferguson, who previously resigned from the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies for breaking lockdown rules, warned: "The measures just announced will take some weeks to have an effect, so we need to wait at this point and see how much it will flatten the curve.

"And then if that is not sufficient to bring the reproduction number below one, so the epidemic starts shrinking again, then yes, we may need to clamp down in other areas."

In England, Boris Johnson has now changed the rules on gatherings, allowing six people to get together from different households.

No new measures have yet been introduced in Wales, but Caerphilly this week became the first area to return to lockdown, cases have risen in Powys, and the latest details of lockdown lifting are due to be announced tomorrow by First Minister Mark Drakeford.

County Times:

A woman wearing a mask in Merthy Tydfil, which could also face further lockdown measures. Pic: PA Wire.

Professor Ferguson added that people should "hesitate" at the "headlong rush to get everybody back into offices".

"The case number increases we've seen in the last two weeks, do not yet account for the reopening of schools. So undoubtedly that may increase transmission still further and there may be a need therefore to reduce contacts in other settings," he told Today.

Prof Ferguson said he was still working from home, and cautioned: "Certainly I think we should hesitate and maybe pause at the headlong rush to get everybody back into offices.

"But some people have to work and I completely understand the concerns in many quarters that everybody working at home has an economic impact, particularly on city centres."

Meanwhile, Grant Shapps has said the technology for the Government's "moonshot" plan of 10 million Covid-19 tests a day does not yet exist.

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Grant Shapps

Speaking on Sky News, he said: "We know this isn't simple to achieve, but we hope it will be possible through technology and new tests to have a test which works by not having to return the sample to a lab."

He said the Government was hoping to develop a test that provided a result in between 20 minutes and 90 minutes.

"This is technology that, to be perfectly blunt, requires further development - there isn't a certified test in the world that does this but there are people that are working on prototypes," he said.