A NEW tool created by Oxford University researchers reveals how Powys could be affected by a second wave of the coronavirus.

Experts from the Russell Group university have created an interactive map which shows hotspots that could be adversely affected by a second wave of cases, if there is one.

At-risk regions have been identified based on the number of ‘vulnerable’ people and available hospital resources.

And it also considers data on population age, density, social deprivation and density.

Infection rates are assumed as constant across age groups. Hospital capacity is calculated relative to the number of hospital beds available under normal circumstances

The map shows that Powys could be hard-hit, with 10 hospitalisations per 1,000 people in ‘general care’ and three to four people in critical care.

There are no critical care beds in Powys.

A link to the map can be found here - https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/COVID19-DemRisk/

The Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science dashboard is designed to add to the UK government's test and trace programme by highlighting which regions and local areas are most likely to suffer disproportionate infections and hospital demand if an outbreak occurs.

Given the constantly evolving situation, it also allows users to adjust for changing infection rates and hospital resource levels.

According to the report, published in BMC Medicine: "We estimate specific pressure points where Covid-19 demand is likely to outstrip the baseline local supply.

"This includes rural areas in Wales as well as the North East and South West of England where high expected hospitalisation rates combine with relatively low bed capacity. Importantly, these areas are often more isolated and further away from alternative hospital services."