WHILE many people still doubt whether man-made climate change is real, it is clear from the Copenhagen summit that this issue will continue to dominate political agendas in 2010 and beyond.
If the overwhelming majority of scientists are wrong regarding our contribution to climate change, the global economy will suffer needlessly. If they are right, and we fail to act, the world will see catastrophe on an apocalyptic scale.
Like most people, I would dearly like to believe the scientists have got it horribly wrong, but when you look at what is predicted, it is clear that throwing caution to the wind means gambling with the lives of future generations.
With such stark warnings being made, there is a real need for joined up thinking, and action on a global scale, taking account of complex issues such as appropriate land use, carbon sequestration, global economics, and food security.
Yet reports recently published by the Lancet and the Sustainable Development Commission advocating cutting out meat to reduce climate change take little or no account of this, and highlight the dangers of failing to properly examine the whole picture.
Such short-sighted analyses that lead to convenient “quick-fix” sound-bites are damaging to Welsh and UK businesses. They undermine the work already underway to minimise the impact of farming on the environment, threaten the ecosystems relying on livestock production, and you are likely to make matters worse by undermining domestic food production and encouraging food production in countries with poor records in terms of deforestation and, therefore, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The fact of the matter is that livestock production is the only responsible option on land that is unsuitable for growing crops and failure to recognise this, or issuing sound bites that undermine the industry, are grossly irresponsible.
In Wales, 80 per cent of the land is categorised as Less Favoured, meaning most land is only suited for livestock and forage production. The alternatives are to abandon land, or to attempt to grow unsuitable crops, both of which would have catastrophic environmental impacts in terms of local ecology and greenhouse gasses.
Moreover, abandoning sustainable livestock production would undermine our food security, and devastate rural communities and economies.
In terms of Welsh policies, elements of the Glastir scheme have the potential to make a real difference to climate change mitigation, providing the scheme meets the objectives of being easily understood, easy to administer and not being too onerous for farmers to administer.
Whilst I have real concerns that the scheme is by no means ready to meet the demanding timetable set for it, and its introduction will leave significant question marks about the viability of farming within the LFA, I believe there is an opportunity for Glastir to make a positive contribution to climate change mitigation if sufficient time and resources are invested before rolling it out.