Letter: Boundary changes could see Labour win new seat

As part of electoral boundary changes happening across the UK, the Montgomeryshire constituency has expanded its northern border into parts of the now-dissolved Clwyd South, to become Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr. 

With the addition of those Labour-leaning areas, major polling website Electoral Calculus estimates that Labour’s candidate, Steve Witherden, has an 84% chance of besting the Conservative incumbent Craig Williams, were the election to be held tomorrow. 

This would be the first time Montgomeryshire has had a Labour MP in its history, being the only constituency in Wales never to have elected one.

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The Conservatives have held power here since 2010, and with the Liberal Democrat vote share declining at every general election since, many might well start to look elsewhere.

Recent by-election wins for Labour in rural constituencies including Selby and Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire have seen huge Conservative majorities overturned – the latter double that of Montgomeryshire. Some Labour supporters are beginning to feel that anything could be possible.

Boundary changes mean our new constituency has gone from a Lib Dem-Tory swing seat to a Labour-Tory marginal.

Things are made more challenging for our incumbent MP by the fact that the Reform Party are predicted to end up with half as many votes as the Tories, leaving Reform polling in third place.

The outcome of the election here could hang on the decisions of those who traditionally back smaller parties.
David France, via email