BY the time you read this, most - or all - of the May 5 elections, as well as the referendum on electoral reform, will have taken place. It is a momentous day for the constituency, Wales and Britain as a whole.
I will resist the temptation to make a partisan appeal for support for my friends and colleagues. However, I do offer a few thoughts about the importance of the results of these elections and this referendum to the country at large.
For the first time, the country has the opportunity to change the electoral system. However, and somewhat disappointingly in my opinion, the campaign has been mired in personal attacks and negative insults.
This has detracted from a fuller discussion of the merits and demerits of the proposed change itself. In a sense, the referendum on Alternative Votes has been turned into something else, largely about individual personalities and parties. Whatever the outcome, and I can’t predict that right now, this is likely to be the ONLY referendum on these matters for the many decades. It would be a shame indeed if it is determined on personal prejudices, rather than objective debate.
As for the elections themselves, these will provide vital pointers to all the major parties about their current popularity, and the performance of the Coalitions in London and Cardiff. Again, there have been many predictions, but – as I found out last year – the predictions can be very, very wrong!
So, what does it all mean? Well, for Labour, they have to make gains if they’re to have a chance of doing well at the next General Election.
Meanwhile, Tories and Lib Dems will be conscious of the potential impact the national cuts agenda might have had on their popularity.
The outcome for them will indicate the degree of tolerance and understanding the public display to this challenging set of Parliamentary decisions.
An interesting unknown at time of writing is the UKIP vote. How will they do? Have they become a protest vote for frustrated Tories? Again, once the analysis has been done, we’ll know all that more clearly.
As I write this, on the Wednesday before polling day, I know there are thousands of anxious candidates, and tens of thousands of nervous activists.
But politics is a heartless business. It doesn’t leave much space for sentimentality. Winners win and losers lose and there’s absolutely nothing in between the two. Whatever happens, by Friday evening, some things will have changed forever. Whether that’s for the better or not, will depend entirely on your personal viewpoint. That’s democracy.